英國脫歐對租賃市場的影響

　　

　　Leasingmarket reacts to Brexit

　　

　　In the reaction of the British population having voted toleave the EU on 23rd, leasing industry experts have warned the market to expectsome short term instability, and that the longer term future is uncertain.

　　

　　租賃行業專家提醒，23日英國人民投票決定脫離歐盟可能會給租賃市場帶來短期不穩定性，而長期前景還不確定。

　　

　　Leasing market intermediaries expressed shockat the result but stressed that the status change was to become the new normal.

　　

　　Chris Cooper, managing director at Challenge Consulting,said: "The instant reaction will be shock, surprise and uncertainty. Therewas no real sense that Leave would win, so people are still taking it in.Personally, I think it's really hard to call what will happen next. In theimmediate term, both here and EU, my best hope is that worry and fear, and Isense both this morning, will quickly subside as people get used to waking upin the new world."

　　

　　租賃中介對這一投票結果表示驚訝，但強調市場環境變化將成為新常態。Challenge Consulting常務董事Chris Cooper表示：“我的下意識反應是震驚，驚訝和不確定。沒想到脫歐派會贏，然而人們還是接受了。我個人認為現階段很難說租賃業和歐盟接下來會發生什么，我希望黎明前的擔心的恐懼能夠隨著人們適應新常態而迅速平息。”

　　

　　Lindsay Town, chief executive officer at IAA Advisory,said that the causative effect of the vote on the political status of the Unionwith Scotland could cause difficulties for British businesses.

　　

　　IAAAdvisory 首席執行官,Lindsay Town表示，選票的對蘇格蘭政治形勢的影響將威脅英國經濟。

　　

　　"Uncertainty remains the biggest risk, far more thana status of in or out of the EU," said Town. "The uncertainty of whatleaving the EU actually means will impact Investment decisions in the nearterm. The added potential disruption of Cameron's announcement and the risk ofScottish independence rearing its head again will not be positive for the UKeconomy. Wider afield, I worry that there will be pressure from other anti EUparties in Europe that will also add to instability."

　　

　　她認為：“不確定性相較于在歐盟內外的地位仍然是最大的威脅。脫歐后的不確定性將影響短期內投資決策。加之卡梅倫辭職聲明的潛在破壞和蘇格蘭獨立再次抬頭的風險，都將對英國經濟產生消極影響。長遠看來，我擔心來自歐洲反歐盟的各方壓力也會增加不穩定性。”

　　

　　Europeaninvestment and regulation in the UK

　　

　　歐洲在英國的投資和監管

　　

　　Earlier this week, the European Investment Bank (EIB)announced a deal with Funding Circle to provide ￡100m (€130.47) of funding toUK SMEs.

　　

　　本周早些時候，歐洲投資銀行（EIB）宣布為Funding Circle注資1億英鎊（130.47歐元，用于英國中小企業融資。

　　

　　A spokesman for the EIB said that the future of the EIB'sinvolvement in investment in the UK was now under question, but said anycontracts signed would "be respected".

　　

　　EIB發言人表示，EIB對英國的未來投資目前遇阻，但是已經簽訂的合同將“被尊重”。

　　

　　The EIB spokesman said: "We would expect the UKshareholding in the EIB and EIB lending in the UK to be one of many issues tobe discussed in withdrawal negotiations, and we would expect the UK to remain ashareholder in the EIB, with a 16% shareholding, until a withdrawal agreementis implemented."

　　

　　EIB發言人表示：“我們希望英國在EIB的股東地位和EIB在英國的貸款將成為脫歐談判談論的議題之一，我們也希望英國仍持有在EIB的16%的股份，直到脫歐協議實現。”

　　

　　The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) warned that the votewill have significant implications for the UK, as much financial regulationcurrently applicable in the UK derives from EU legislation, and this willremain applicable until any changes are made.

　　

　　英國金融市場行為監管局（FCA）警示，此次投票將對英國產生重要影響，因為目前許多應用于英國的金融監管來自歐盟立法，而且這些在有任何改變之前，仍將適用。

　　

　　It said firms must continue to abide by their obligationsunder UK law, including those derived from EU law and continue withimplementation plans for legislation that is still to come into effect.

　　

　　But it is likely that the resources that the FCA has willnow be focused on the post-EU transformation of the UK's financial system.

　　

　　英國公司必須繼續遵守本國法律，也包括來自歐盟的法律規定的義務，而且繼續實施仍會生效的立法計劃。但是FCA很可能將力量集中于英國金融系統的后歐盟時代轉換。

　　

　　The FCA added: "The longer term impacts of thedecision to leave the EU on the overall regulatory framework for the UK willdepend, in part, on the relationship that the UK seeks with the EU in thefuture. We will work closely with the government as it confirms thearrangements for the UK's future relationship with the EU."

　　

　　FCA表示：“脫歐對于英國整體監管框架的長期影響將部分取決于英國與歐盟未來的關系。我們將會與政府緊密合作，及時掌握與歐盟未來關系。”

　　

　　The Finance & Leasing Association (FLA) also suggestedthat it will be some time before the full consequences of the vote are known.Stephen Sklaroff, director general of the FLA, said: "We are at thebeginning of what will be a long process of discussion and negotiation. As theBank of England and FCA have already emphasised, the current legal andfinancial regulatory framework for FLA members remains exactly as it was beforethe vote, and it is likely to do so for some considerable time. “The UK has a strong and resilient financial sector andthe FLA's members will continue to make a vital contribution to the economy.

　　

　　英國融資租賃協會（FLA）也認為，投票的全部后果只有過一段時間才能顯現。FLA 常務會長Stephen Sklaroff認為：“漫長的討論和談判過程剛剛開始。英國央行和FCA已經強調，當前的法律和金融監管對于FLA成員跟投票前一樣，仍然有效，而且在相當長一段時間內很有可能也這么做。”英國的金融部門強大而具有彈性，FLA的成員將繼續為經濟作重要貢獻。

　　

　　"The FLA will work closely with the government,regulators and other stakeholders to ensure that its members' interests areproperly reflected in discussions over the coming months and years about thepossible market and regulatory consequences of the decision to leave the EU."

　　

　　“FLA將于政府、監管機構和其他利益相關者緊密合作，以確保成員的利益在未來幾個月或者幾年對于脫歐后市場走勢，監管的討論中得到反應。”

　　

　　Transition

　　

　　過渡

　　

　　Grant Thornton suggested there will be three broad phasesof reaction to Brexit: initial volatility, medium term uncertainty andinstability, and finally a longer term transition period.

　　

　　GrantThornton表示英國脫歐將經歷三個階段：最初的波動期，中間的不穩定和不確定期以及最后長時間的過渡期。

　　

　　The impact of this will be different for differentorganisation, Grant Thornton warned. It advised companies: "In looking atthe threats and opportunities these create for your business, and planning howyou can create and protect value, you may wish to consider the short, mediumand long term implications for issues like people and talent, strategicambitions, financing, risk, operations and protecting investment."

　　

　　脫歐對不同組織的影響是不盡相同的。Grant Thronton建議企業：“注意脫歐對企業業務的威脅和挑戰，計劃如何創造和保護價值，考慮三個階段對人，人才，戰略規劃，融資，風險，業務操作和保護投資等方面的影響。”

　　

　　The National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers(NACFB) agreed that immediate uncertainty. Paul Goodman, chairman of the NACFB,said: "In the wake of the Leave result, and the resignation of David Cameron,the UK is facing a period of considerable uncertainty, and small andmedium-sized businesses will not be immune. Nobody knows how the result of theEU Referendum will play out, and its ultimate impact on the economy, but choppywaters in the short-term are almost guaranteed. The political events of thepast 24 hours have the potential to shape the UK business landscape for manyyears to come. It's just impossible to know whether it will be for better orfor worse. What we shouldn't forget is that the economy is robust andemployment levels high. Managed correctly, the result of the referendum doesnot have to trigger a replay of the Global Financial Crisis. Bank of EnglandGovernor, Mark Carney, made a statement to this effect shortly after the PrimeMinister's resignation"

　　

　　商業融資經紀人協會（NACFB）也同意暫時不確定性。NAFCB會長Paul Goodman表示：“受脫歐和卡梅倫辭職的影響，英國將面臨長期的不確定性，中小企業也不能免受其害。沒有人知道歐盟公投的結果如何，也不知道其最終對經濟的影響如何，但短期內的波濤洶涌是毫無疑問的。過去24小時的政治事件有可能影響英國今后多年的經濟形勢。只是不知道會更好還是更壞。我們只要記住經濟強健和高就業水平就好。恰當的管理公投結果就不會再次引發全球金融危機。英國蘭銀行行長Mark Carney在首相辭職后做了短暫聲明。”

　　

　　Challengesfor bank-backed asset finance

　　

　　銀行支持資產融資面臨的挑戰

　　

　　Stuart Law, founder and chief executive of peer-to-peerfunding platform, Assetz Capital, said that Brexit would create a bigopportunity for its investors as he thought bank interest rates on businessloans were likely to rise, making banks less competitive.

　　

　　P2P融資平臺，Assetz Capital創始人兼首席執行官Stuart Law認為，英國脫歐將為投資者創造巨大的機遇，因為銀行商業貸款利率可能上升，銀行競爭力下降。

　　

　　"Banks' lending volumes are now reduced and at thesame time, they are likely to lower their savings account rates evenfurther," said Law. "This will allow us to continue to grow stronglyand deliver more lending to quality businesses who can provide us with solidloan security and also deliver more interest to our lenders. "

　　

　　Law 認為：“目前銀行放款量減少，同時他們可能會進一步降低儲蓄存款利率。這樣我們就可以繼續壯大，為能保證還款的優質客戶提供更多的貸款，也可以增加放款人利潤。”

　　

　　Law continued: "We have lent over ￡120m to theBritish economy backed by what is principally strong property security atmodest loan to value, and as a result our lenders have earned approaching ￡12million of interest since 2013. We expect this to continue but the credit teamwill be even more careful on the quality of businesses we lend to as wenavigate the inevitable wobbles created out of the Brexit. Hard security onloans will be even more important."

　　

　　他還認為：“我們為英國經濟支持的財產安全性高的企業貸款超過1.2億英鎊，因此自2013年以來我們放款人獲利1200萬英鎊。我們預計盈利將會繼續，但是信貸團隊對于評估貸款企業的質量將更加謹慎，因為我們不可避免的要經受英國脫歐帶來的動蕩。貸款的安全性將更加重要。”

　　

　　Manufacturerscite jobs at risk

　　

　　制造商用工面臨風險

　　

　　Hitachi chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi has said a Brexit wouldforce a 'rethink' of the manufacturer's operations and jobs in the UK, and thatthis view was shared by international investors such as the parentmanufacturers of leasing businesses; Siemens, GE, and Microsoft.

　　

　　Hitachi總裁Hiroaki Nakanishi表示，英國脫歐將破事制造商反思其在英國的業務和用工，而且像租賃公司的制造商母公（Siemens, GE和Microsoft.）等國際投資者也會有同樣的思考。

　　

　　Nakanishi said Hitachi had invested a billion poundscreating jobs in the UK's rail and energy sectors, but that the 'critical benefitof investing in the UK' was that it was the best base for accessing theEuropean market of 500 million people.

　　

　　Nakanishi表示，Hitachi已經投資10億英鎊在英國的鐵路和能源方面創造就業，但是投資英國的關鍵在于，這是獲得歐洲5億人口市場的最佳平臺。

　　

　　Nakanishi added: "There are other reasons like thesize of the UK market, availability of local and international talent and thesupport of our local communities - which is why we take a positive view of theUK inside Europe. Therefore we have our regional headquarters here and moved our global rail headquartersto London. But take away the UK's membership of the EU, and the futureinvestment case looks very different."

　　

　　Nakanishi還認為：“還有投資英國的其他原因，如英國市場，獲得當地和國際人才，當地社會的支持，這是我們認為英國入歐的積極方面。因此，我們地區的總部設立在倫敦，全球鐵路總部也搬到倫敦。但是如果英國脫歐，那么未來投資情況就大不相同了。”

　　

　　Nakanishi also mentioned Nissan and Toyota's arrival inthe UK in the 1980s on the basis that if they produced cars in the UK andemployed a British workforce then they would be treated as European companies.

　　

　　Nakanishi還提到Nissan and Toyota在1980年代來到英國，是因為如果他們在英國生產汽車而且雇傭英國勞動力，那么他們將被視為歐洲公司。

　　

　　"This was only possible because Britain was insidethe EU; and so the UK car industry was revived and became an exporteragain," said Nakanishi.

　　

　　Nakanishi 說：“這些條件得以實現是因為英國是歐盟國家，也因此英國汽車業得以復蘇，而且再次成為出口國。”

　　

　　According to Nakanishi, Japanese companies account for140,000 jobs in direct employment and supply chain in the UK. He said a surveyof these 140,000 employees revealed that 95% did not want to leave the EUbecause of the threat to their employment.

　　

　　據Nakanishi所說，日本公司為英國直接就業創造了140.000個工作崗位，而且完善英國汽車供應鏈。他說調查顯示，140.000名員工中95%的人不贊成脫歐，因為這將威脅到他們就業。

　　

　　來源：租賃生活

培訓公告
8月26-27日	上海—金水灣大酒店	汽車融資租賃業務操作流程、模式創新與風險控制專題研討會
歡迎垂詢 133-3106-9587   楊志軍
或登陸http://www.tl17.net了解課程詳情。